‘Big Short’ Investor Michael Burry Warns of Another Inflation Spike — Expects US to Be ‘in Recession by Any Definition’

Riskifondijuht Michael Burry, kuulus ennustamise poolest 2008 finantskriis, says inflation has peaked in the U.S. but there will be another inflation spike. He expects the U.S. economy to be in a recession “by any definition.”

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Michael Burry’s 2023 Economic Predictions

Kuulus investor ja investeerimisfirma Scion Asset Management asutaja, Michael Burry, has shared his 2023 economic predictions. Burry is best known for being the first investor to foresee and profit from the U.S. vahel toimunud kõrge riskitasemega hüpoteeklaenude kriis 2007 ja 2010. Ta on profileeritud filmis "The Big Short,” Michael Lewise raamat hüpoteeklaenukriisist, millest tehti film Christian Bale’iga peaosas.

Burry tweeted Sunday: “Inflation peaked. But it is not the last peak of this cycle.” He continued:

We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the U.S. in recession by any definition. Fed will cut and government will stimulate. And we will have another inflation spike. It’s not hard.

Many people on Twitter agreed with Burry. Lawyer John E. Deaton tweeted: “I believe this is accurate.” Economist Peter St. Onge wrote: “The smart kids agree: lower inflation will be transitory, then Fed cranks up the money printers and does it again.”

Investment specialist Karel Mercx commented: “Michael Burry has a point … Inflation usually comes in waves, and there is rarely one wave (see 1970s CPI chart). The five most dangerous words in investing are still: ‘this time it is different.’”

'Big Short' Investor Michael Burry Warns of Another Inflation Spike — Expects US to Be 'in Recession by Any Definition'
The consumer price index (CPI) chart Mercx shared. Allikas: Twitter.

Investor Kerry Balenthiran concurred with Burry, tweeting: “Agreed, but the next inflationary spike could end in a decade or more. This is very much like the 1947 juurde 1965 secular bull market. In that case, there was a post-war inflation that quietened down, followed by an inflationary environment that ultimately peaked in 1980.”

Some people offered alternative viewpoints. Former broker Rob Bezdjian, näiteks, believes there will be deflation. “I will take the other side of his inflation prediction … We will be in deflation for a long time. Bubbles take a very long time to re-inflate,“ arvas ta.

Burry has shared numerous warnings about the U.S. majandust. Novembris 2022, ta hoiatas of “an extended multi-year recession.” In May, the Big Short investor cautioned about a looming consumer recession and more earnings trouble. Aprillis, ta ütles the Federal Reserve “has no intention of fighting inflation,” rõhutades: “The Fed’s all about reloading the monetary bazooka so it can ride to the rescue & finance the fiscal put.”

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Do you agree with Michael Burry about inflation and that the U.S. economy will be in a recession? Andke meile teada allpool olevas kommentaaride jaotises.

Kevin Helms

Austria majandusteaduse tudeng, Kevin leidis Bitcoini 2011 ja on sellest ajast peale olnud evangelist. Tema huvid seisnevad Bitcoini turvalisuses, avatud lähtekoodiga süsteemid, võrguefektid ning majandusteaduse ja krüptograafia ristumiskoht.




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