Der „Big Short“-Investor Michael Burry warnt vor einem weiteren Inflationsanstieg – erwartet, dass sich die USA „in jeder Definition in einer Rezession befinden“

Hedgefonds-Manager Michael Burry, berühmt für die Vorhersage der 2008 Finanzkrise, says inflation has peaked in the U.S. but there will be another inflation spike. He expects the U.S. economy to be in a recession “by any definition.”

Michael Burry’s 2023 Wirtschaftsprognosen

Famous investor and founder of investment firm Scion Asset Management, Michael Berry, has shared his 2023 economic predictions. Burry is best known for being the first investor to foresee and profit from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis that occurred between 2007 und 2010. He is profiled in “The Big Short,” a book by Michael Lewis about the mortgage crisis, which was made into a movie starring Christian Bale.

Burry tweeted Sunday: “Inflation peaked. But it is not the last peak of this cycle.” He continued:

We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the U.S. in recession by any definition. Fed will cut and government will stimulate. And we will have another inflation spike. It’s not hard.

Many people on Twitter agreed with Burry. Lawyer John E. Deaton tweeted: “I believe this is accurate.” Economist Peter St. Onge wrote: “The smart kids agree: lower inflation will be transitory, then Fed cranks up the money printers and does it again.”

Investment specialist Karel Mercx commented: “Michael Burry has a point … Inflation usually comes in waves, and there is rarely one wave (see 1970s CPI chart). The five most dangerous words in investing are still: ‘this time it is different.’”

Investor Kerry Balenthiran concurred with Burry, tweeting: “Agreed, but the next inflationary spike could end in a decade or more. This is very much like the 1947 zu 1965 secular bull market. In that case, there was a post-war inflation that quietened down, followed by an inflationary environment that ultimately peaked in 1980.”

Some people offered alternative viewpoints. Former broker Rob Bezdjian, Zum Beispiel, believes there will be deflation. “I will take the other side of his inflation prediction … We will be in deflation for a long time. Bubbles take a very long time to re-inflate,” he opined.

Burry has shared numerous warnings about the U.S. Wirtschaft. In November 2022, er gewarnt of “an extended multi-year recession.” In May, the Big Short investor gewarnt about a looming consumer recession and more earnings trouble. Im April, er sagte the Federal Reserve “has no intention of fighting inflation,“ betont: “The Fed’s all about reloading the monetary bazooka so it can ride to the rescue & finance the fiscal put.”

Do you agree with Michael Burry about inflation and that the U.S. economy will be in a recession? Lass es uns im Kommentarbereich unten wissen.

Kevin Helms

Studentin der österreichischen Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Kevin fand Bitcoin in 2011 und ist seitdem Evangelist. Seine Interessen liegen in der Bitcoin-Sicherheit, Open-Source-Systeme, Netzwerkeffekte und die Schnittstelle zwischen Ökonomie und Kryptographie.

Bildnachweise: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki-Commons